A $5 Trillion Mirage?

As the BJP secures its third term consecutively, India is seeing growth like never before, with its GDP passing the $3.7 trillion mark in 2023 and aspiring to surpass $5 trillion before 2025. Still, huge challenges are ahead, especially those away from metro cities. Away from metro cities and still reeling under growing poverty, unemployment, rural distress, and other societal ills, the issues still need to be satisfied. This article will cover the rapid growth of India and the foreseeable path ahead; determining whether a nation so big, can grow together or grow as individual fragments. 

As mentioned earlier, India remains one of the world's fastest-growing economies, at 6.5% growth just this quarter. Services continue to be the driving force behind GDP, at more than 55%, mainly led by IT and financial services. Manufacturing finally starts nearing the centre stage with the Production Linked Incentive scheme occupying most of the limelight. The country looks to be at the forefront in textiles, electronics, and IT services with export targets of touching $1 trillion by 2025.

However, several challenges are in line. The inflation is stubborn at 6% and the unemployment level hovers around 7.8%. Vulnerability in rural India makes life unpredictable with unstable incomes from agriculture. On the brighter side, GST revenues are regularly crossing ₹1.5 lakh crore a month, suggesting a much better-organised economy even though small businesses still face quite a few problems. There is likely to be major capital investment due in the Union Budget for 2024–25. Large-scale, extensive infrastructure initiatives like Bharatmala and Sagarmala are currently in progress, and the government is expected to exceed the investment goal of ₹10.5 lakh crore established for 2023. The goal? Enhancement of roads, ports, and railway systems.  The development of our nation needs to be backed by a strong grounding and a strong base. This can only be achieved from the ground up, which the government very strongly wishes to achieve. 

It is not merely political stability that the victory of BJP in 2024 is going to entail but, rather, the bar has been raised ever so high. Only with continuity, will long-term initiatives like Digital India have the chance of becoming effective drivers of growth; coupled with accountability. Despite the opposition sharpening its criticism, programs like 'Ayushman Bharat' and 'PM-KISAN' are not just policy; they are a question of survival for millions. And consensus on such things remains hard to achieve, particularly on issues like labour and land reforms that form the backbone of sustainable growth. And then, of course, there is the usual battle at the state level, where reforms always find resistance. There's much needed to be found between cooperation and regulation if India has to reach ambitious goals.

So, what do we expect in the next budget? Three big themes are green energy investments, digital economy expansion, and healthcare and education reforms. India already has over 125 GW of renewable energy in operation. The next big moves are in green hydrogen and scaling up the adoption of EVs—sectors that promise environmental benefits but, more importantly, millions of new jobs to our 1.4 Billion. Our Fintech is booming; evident in UPI transactions have touched ₹14.3 lakh crore per month in 2023. The digital economy is estimated to add $1 trillion to GDP by 2025. This represents the power of creating accessibility within a nation as large as ours. Every vendor, every worker, every business, has moved away from cash to more minimalist phone payments. To the several growing companies in this vast nation today, this is the only way this nation can make the best use of the boom in enterprise and use the massive population to our full advantage. 

Healthcare is another area that needs more attention. The public spends only 1.5% of the GDP on healthcare today. Raise it to 2.5%, and that too would be transformative. Education reforms under NEP will lay a strong foundation to ensure that the young Indians are fit for the future. From being merely a "rise" power, India will become a force to be reckoned with. Whether it is leading initiatives like the International Solar Alliance or shaping BRICS and G20 agendas, the country is making its mark.

Still, there are big challenges. India will be tested against an ever-powerful China as it navigates its energy security needs while managing relationships with the West. As a nation, our strength lies in our young workforce, which has an average age of just 28. The demographic can soon turn into a liability if enough investments are not made into the infrastructure, education, and skills development of that labour force. India is indeed the land of contrasts. 

The road to 2025 will be far from smooth. Inflation unemployment and rural distress call for urgent attention. But India has what it takes: a stable government, bold infrastructure projects, and a youthful, dynamic workforce. The real question is: can we deliver?

History shows that India has always risen to the occasion in times of great difficulty. The third term of BJP provides stability and brings fresh challenges along. Whether it is energy, technology, or social equity, bold choices will be necessary. The stakes are high, and only time will tell.