A New Syria

In the winter of 1970, a stark change brewed in the Middle East. Hafez al-Assad, former commander of the Syrian Air Force, staged a coup against the ruling leaders of Syria which resulted in an overturn in its political landscape. Although still hailing itself as a democracy, the circumstances surrounding the election of Hafez’s son, Bashar al-Assad, were dubious, with the Syrian government going as far as to decrease the minimum age at which a candidate could be elected to allow his running in the first place. The Assad regime has been plagued with multiple conflicts including the Arab-Israeli war and the Syrian occupation of Lebanon.

While Bashar’s reign was met with quiet optimism, it was soon dispelled as any hint of improvement was crushed under the empire. In 2024, Syria had partially disintegrated into fragments controlled by various militias wanting to bring Bashar down. However, due to Syria’s strong ties with Russia and Iran, they were supplied with enough weapons to subdue these revolts. That all changed at the end of the year when the organisation Hay’at Tahrir al-sham (HTS), led by Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, stormed Damascus causing Bashar to flee. In the wake of this revelation, the entirety of Syria became jubilant at the thought of a new ruler with echoes of reform once again being spread amongst Syrians. However, Syria’s new Government cements it into a sort of island with no real allies that can provide aid. This presents a unique opportunity for al-Jawlani to build entirely new relations from scratch whilst ensuring the well-being of the Syrian people. 

A major detraction from Syria’s new government is how it’s opposed on two fronts. Russia actively protects the Assad family from persecution. While other major powers like the United States grow weary of al-Jawlani due to his previous ties with extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda. Syria’s neighbours are also involved in this power vacuum seeking to implement a government that can align with their views. Countries like Turkey support organisations such as the Syrian National Government (SNA) to comply with them while adjacently diminishing the role of the Kurdish people of Syria. Israel is also a major stakeholder with a chance to secure support from a Middle Eastern country in their crusade against Palestine due to their joint experiences in experiencing oppression during the Assad regime. Whilst hailing itself to be a Sunni Islamic organisation, al-Jawlani has also emphasized the protection of minorities that reside in the country such as the 500,000 Christians and 2.5 million Kurds that still live in Syria. Moreover, Jawlani states to have severed ties with terrorist groups entirely, looking forward to a more moderate government. All the promises made are just words in the end and would naturally, be looked upon with suspicion.

Syria also has several internal issues that have run rampant in the country since Hafez took over. Syria ranks at 179 out of all countries in GDP per capita making it one of the poorest in terms of citizen income. This is further complemented by their ranking on the Quality of Life index which puts them 117th worldwide. Both of these are due to the plethora of civil wars that have occurred within the nation. At this point, a large evacuation front is taking place, with many prisoners of the Assad regime having the opportunity to taste freedom once again. Simultaneously, many companies and foreign-made products belonging to former allies rush out of the state causing a deep gash on Syria's economy.

Syria was built on an empire of mistrust and prosecution. Almost all attempts at betterment were swatted away by the Assads. The imprint left by this pseudo-monarchy has left an expansive wasteland of refugees. The strides that have to be taken to even have Syria considered a trustworthy state are unfathomable. Instant change is unlikely to be seen as an official government hasn’t even been announced yet. Countries will take a long time to rebuild however there is reason for cautious optimism for Syria, largely due to the major support built up for HTS and Jawlani’s more sympathetic and passive views towards his people. A new Syria can bring a shift into the Middle East if built on a strong base that involves consistent gains of economic trust that will certainly be attempted in 2025.