A Region on the Edge

The longstanding conflict between India and Pakistan, rooted in the partition of British India in 1947, has had enduring political, military, and social consequences for both nations. The two countries have fought four wars—in 1947–48, 1965, 1971, and 1999—alongside numerous border skirmishes and periods of high tension. The most persistent point of contention remains the region of Jammu and Kashmir, over which both nations claim sovereignty.

Historically, the conflict has shaped domestic political narratives. In India, national security and anti-terror policies have played key roles in electoral campaigns, often reinforcing the political position of ruling parties. For instance, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) saw increased public support following the 2019 Pulwama attack and subsequent Balakot airstrikes. The abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, was similarly justified on national security grounds. In Pakistan, the military has frequently used tensions with India to assert its role in foreign policy and domestic affairs, maintaining its dominance over civilian institutions.

The regional implications are significant. The conflict has disrupted South Asian cooperation mechanisms such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), with bilateral tensions often stalling summits and agreements. Due to visa restrictions and security concerns, cross-border trade and people-to-people contacts remain minimal. Internationally, the nuclear capabilities of both nations, India with an estimated 164 warheads and Pakistan with around 170, according to the Federation of American Scientists as of 2024, make each flare-up a matter of global security interest.

In 2025, the already tense situation escalated further following a deadly terrorist attack. On April 22, 2025, gunmen opened fire on a group of mostly Hindu tourists in the Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. The assailants, armed with automatic rifles, killed 26 civilians and injured at least 20 others. Witness accounts and intelligence reports indicated that victims were targeted based on their religion. The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially claimed responsibility but later retracted the statement. Indian authorities pointed to evidence linking the attack to Pakistan-based operatives, identifying former Pakistani special forces officer Hashim Moosa as a primary suspect. Digital trails and forensic data were reportedly traced back to safehouses in Muzaffarabad and Karachi.

In response to the Pahalgam massacre, India launched a military campaign dubbed 'Operation Sindoor', which involved targeted strikes on militant infrastructure across Pakistan-administered Kashmir and parts of Pakistan itself. Over four days, both sides engaged in missile and drone attacks, resulting in substantial casualties. India reported the deaths of five military personnel and 16 civilians, while Pakistan claimed 40 civilian and 11 military fatalities. The episode marked the most intense military exchange between the two nations since the Kargil War in 1999.

The conflict had an immediate diplomatic fallout. Both countries expelled high-ranking diplomats, suspended visa services, and halted bilateral trade. India formally announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the Simla Agreement, cornerstones of bilateral engagement. Airspaces were closed, disrupting commercial aviation across the region. These measures marked a steep downturn in diplomatic relations, underscoring the volatility of the bilateral relationship.

International actors, including the United States and the United Nations, stepped in to mediate. A ceasefire was eventually brokered on May 10, 2025, ending the active hostilities, although tensions remain high. The skirmish also drew attention to the role of external powers. Pakistan’s use of Chinese-supplied J-10C fighter jets and PL-15 air-to-air missiles in combat for the first time signalled deeper Sino-Pakistani military cooperation. Analysts noted that this provided China an opportunity to observe the performance of its defence exports against advanced Western-origin platforms operated by India.

Domestically, the attack and the military response have stirred political and public discourse in both nations. In India, the government has come under both praise and scrutiny for its handling of the crisis, while civil liberties groups have raised concerns about increased surveillance and security operations in Jammu and Kashmir. In Pakistan, the military's grip on national policy appears further entrenched, with growing criticism from civil society regarding the country’s international isolation and economic strain. Pakistan's military expenditure, which reached $10.3 billion in 2023 according to SIPRI, continues to divert resources from civilian development.

The Pahalgam attack and its aftermath serve as a stark reminder of the fragility of peace in South Asia. While temporary calm has been restored through international diplomacy, the core issues—territorial disputes, cross-border terrorism, and mutual distrust—remain unresolved. The conflict continues to shape not only bilateral relations but also the broader geopolitical landscape of the region.

References

1. Federation of American Scientists. (2024). Status of world nuclear forces. Retrieved from https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/

2. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (2024). SIPRI military expenditure database. Retrieved from https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex

3. Reuters. (2025, May 13). Pakistan says clashes with neighbour India killed more than 50. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-says-clashes-with-neighbour-india-killed-more-than-50-2025-05-13

4. The Guardian. (2025, May 14). Pakistan’s use of J-10C jets and missiles exposes potency of Chinese arms. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/14/pakistans-use-of-j-10c-jets-and-missiles-exposes-potency-of-chinese-arms

5. United Nations. (n.d.). UNMOGIP – United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan. Retrieved from https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/unmogip

6. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). (n.d.). About SAARC. Retrieved from https://www.saarc-sec.org