Labour’s First-Year Test

One year into his premiership, Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government finds itself in turbulent waters. On July 1st 2025, the Prime Minister was forced to shelve proposed cuts to the welfare budget after a substantial rebellion by Labour MPs gutted his legislation. Labour’s position in the opinion polls remains weak. Starmer’s pledge to restore order after the political upheaval triggered by the 2016 Brexit referendum now rings hollow. He would likely argue that the political theatre of Westminster should be ignored in favour of the improvements made to people’s everyday lives.

To assess whether Labour is indeed delivering meaningful change, Economicity draws on a performance index originally developed by The Economist, grounded in policy areas that resonate most with the British public. When Sir Keir took office in July 2024, he promised to “end the chaos” and launch a “decade of national renewal.” His government announced a set of overarching “missions” designed to improve the lives of ordinary citizens. However, this strategy is undermined by three central flaws: the goals are not ambitious enough, progress during the first year has been limited, and the priorities laid out by the government do not align closely with voter concerns.

To better understand the public mood, The Economist commissioned polling from More In Common. The results revealed that voters prioritise tangible personal outcomes: they care more about their individual earnings than GDP, prefer cheaper bills to clean energy initiatives, and remain frustrated by the condition of local roads.

The performance tracker evaluates the government’s efforts across eight key policy areas: immigration, income, housing, health, energy, crime, the environment, and transport. Each domain is measured on a 0–100 scale and averaged into an overall performance score. While not a flawless model—equating metrics like NHS wait times and housing completions can be problematic—it provides a valuable monthly snapshot of governmental effectiveness. According to this index, Labour’s performance remains underwhelming. Although there has been some recovery since the low point of 2023, progress has been incremental at best. Updates will continue until the next scheduled general election in spring 2029. A closer look at each domain follows:

Immigration

Starmer pledged to dismantle the smuggling operations transporting migrants across the English Channel by establishing a £150 million border-security command and increasing coordination with French authorities. However, smuggling networks have adapted to evade detection. As a result, the number of small-boat crossings in the 12 months to June 30th reached 43,309—marking a 38% increase from the previous year.

Income

Labour has correctly diagnosed Britain’s chronic growth problem. In the five years preceding Starmer’s election, GDP growth stood at a mere 4%, compared to 13% in the United States. Yet for most voters, GDP is an abstract concept. According to polling, 30% of voters said that increases in their own take-home pay would make them more likely to support Labour. In this area, the government has made some headway: inflation-adjusted average weekly pay rose by 1.8% in the year to April 2025, well above the long-term average of 0.8%.

Housing

The housing crisis continues to loom large in the public consciousness. Labour has embraced the Conservative-era target of building 1.5 million homes over five years. Starmer has committed to “backing the builders, not the blockers,” with a focus on planning reform. However, the effects of such reforms will take time to materialise. In the interim, net housing completions in England fell to 201,000 in the year to March, representing a nine-year low.

Energy

The shock to energy markets triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to a dramatic rise in household energy bills. The preceding Conservative government spent £60 billion to temporarily shield households, but this measure lacked long-term sustainability. Labour’s flagship goal is for 95% of electricity to come from low-carbon sources by 2030, reducing exposure to fossil-fuel price volatility. However, the public remains primarily concerned about their energy bills. More than half of respondents in the More In Common poll indicated they would be more inclined to vote Labour if energy costs fell. Despite a recent decline, energy bills still consume a greater share of household income than the long-term average of 2.5%.

Health

The NHS remains strained post-pandemic. Health Secretary Wes Streeting concedes that the system is “broken, but not beaten.” While the government has prioritised cutting wait times for specialist consultations, most voters are more concerned with emergency room delays. The long-standing NHS goal is for 95% of A&E patients to be seen within four hours—a target not met for over a decade. As of May, only 59% of the 17 million patients attending major A&E departments were treated within that timeframe.

Crime

Crime continues to be a top voter concern, despite the long-term decline in incident numbers. Official crime statistics for England and Wales show a three-decade fall in incidents, excluding fraud and cybercrime. These omissions, as well as undercounting of petty crime like shoplifting, contribute to public scepticism. Labour’s policy agenda includes increasing police visibility, halving knife crime and violence against women, and addressing antisocial behaviour. Still, the electorate prioritises an overall crime reduction. In the year to December 2024, there were 4.8 million incidents—up 10% from the previous year.

Environment

The pandemic-era surge in wild swimming and local tourism brought greater awareness of the UK's poor water quality. During heavy rains, untreated sewage continues to flow into rivers, lakes, and coastal waters. Polling data show that 40% of respondents prioritise reducing sewage spills, compared to just 20% who emphasise achieving net-zero emissions. In 2024, sewage spills per storm overflow averaged 32, down 4% from 2023, but still well above the 2030 target of 18. Water companies have committed £12 billion to achieving this goal.

Transport

Among infrastructure concerns, few issues frustrate Britons more than potholes. MPs have called the state of the country's roads a “national embarrassment.” In December 2024, the government pledged £1.6 billion to repair potholes. However, the Asphalt Industry Alliance estimates that ten times this amount is needed to clear the backlog. According to data from the AA, the average number of pothole-related vehicle breakdowns—including damage to tyres, steering, and suspension—stood at 51,095 per month in the year to June, a 7% decline from the previous year. Still, with tight transport budgets for the rest of the parliamentary term, the situation is unlikely to improve dramatically.

Source

https://www.economist.com/interactive/2025-british-politics/starmer-tracker