Refugees to Revenue

When Germany opened its doors to Syrians fleeing civil war a decade ago, the political gamble was met with both applause and apprehension. Angela Merkel’s famous declaration, “Wir schaffen das” (“We can manage this”), triggered a wave of migration that has since reshaped Germany’s social and economic fabric. Ten years later, the numbers tell a story that is less about the crisis and more about contribution: two-thirds of Syrian refugees who arrived between 2013 and 2019 now have jobs, their employment rate trailing the national average by only nine percentage points. Far from being a long-term burden, they are helping to patch one of Germany’s most pressing vulnerabilities — its aging workforce.

Consider the story of Diar Khal. He arrived in Germany in December 2014 after years of displacement, barely speaking German and burdened by the trauma of war and child labor in Turkey. A decade later, he is fluent in the language, runs a Mannheim-based startup with 15 employees, and has become a symbol of what integration can achieve. His company develops an app to help other migrants navigate Germany’s famously complicated bureaucracy — a product born out of lived experience. Khal’s journey underscores how the right mix of opportunity, training, and persistence can turn asylum-seekers into entrepreneurs.

Such success stories are not isolated. In 2023, more than 83,000 Syrians became German citizens, the largest nationality group to do so. Research from the Institute for Employment Research shows that early concerns about integration were overstated: policymakers had hoped for half of refugees to be working by now, but the actual figure is substantially higher. As Herbert Brücker, head of migration studies at the institute, puts it, “The glass is more half full than half empty.” Refugees initially required significant public spending for housing, education, and healthcare, but as they have entered the workforce, they are increasingly paying into the system rather than drawing from it.

The demographic argument for migration is perhaps the most compelling. With one of the fastest-aging populations in Europe, Germany needs about 400,000 new workers each year to sustain its economy and support its pension system. Economist Martin Werding estimates that at current levels, each newcomer will contribute €7,100 annually to the state budget in the coming decades — around €3 billion a year in aggregate. Migration, in this sense, is not merely a humanitarian gesture but an economic necessity. “From a demographic perspective, we are dependent on immigration,” Werding warns, framing refugees less as guests and more as indispensable taxpayers.

Still, integration has been neither smooth nor uniform. German authorities initially barred asylum-seekers from working, delaying their entry into the labor market and wasting valuable years of potential. Many were placed in rural areas where jobs are scarce and social ties thin. Yet even in such conditions, remarkable stories emerged. Take Ryyan Alshebl, who fled Syria in 2015 and, after vocational training, became mayor of Ostelsheim, a small Black Forest town, in 2023. Winning 55% of the vote, he represents not just political participation but also a broader acceptance of refugees as stakeholders in German society.

However, the politics of migration remain volatile. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has tightened border controls to stem undocumented arrivals, hoping to blunt the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), now the second-strongest force in parliament. Anti-immigrant rhetoric, amplified by housing shortages and welfare debates, risks alienating refugees who have already integrated.

The economic facts suggest that Germany’s Syrian refugees are becoming net contributors, filling labor shortages, starting businesses, and raising children who are poised to join the professional ranks. Their stories complicate the polarised debate by showing that integration, while costly upfront, pays dividends in the long run. The choice before Germany is not whether to accept refugees — it already has — but whether to embrace them as partners in addressing the demographic and economic challenges ahead.

From refugees to revenue-generators, Syrians in Germany embody a shift from short-term burden to long-term benefit. The question now is whether politics can catch up to economics in recognising that migration, when managed with foresight, is less a crisis than an investment in the country’s future.