The Trump Card

Record surges in the stock market following news of Trump's imminent return to power served as proof that there may be some truth behind his campaign promises to return America to the supposed prosperity it enjoyed during his first term. His return to power has tremendous implications for virtually every country between the four corners of the world, and the impacts of his ‘America First Policy’ will be felt universally, for better or for worse.

Luckily for the writers of this article, Trump’s campaign promises left little to the imagination. It remains to be seen, however, if he will manage to deliver on them. A businessman at heart, Trump is regarded to be an extremely ‘transactional’ politician, especially about his foreign policies. His rise to power has been primarily through his promises to keep the best interests of America at heart, with other stakeholders seen as holding secondary importance. This article aims to protect America’s next five years under Trump, using both his campaign promises as well as his actions during his first term to visualise and predict what the world may look like under his hands.

One of his most outlandish promises was that he would manage to bring about an end to the Russo-Ukrainian war before his inauguration, a war which cost America over $60 billion and divided supporters of Trump’s predecessor Biden regarding his handling of the war. However, it remains optimistic at best to see a potential end to the war under Trump’s tenure, let alone before its start. While Trump has publicly promised to continue supporting Ukrainian forces in the form of monetary aid, it appears likely that he will reduce or even completely stop the shipment of missiles and weapons to the country. Moreover, with Russia a major player in several fields of American interest, Trump may use the Ukraine situation to nudge Putin to help America out by making decisions such as easing trade relations with North Korea or pulling Iran back from its conflict with Israel, a key US ally.

With global attention on the Hamas-Israel war, Trump’s involvement in this conflict is likely to be major. Aligning with the stance of his predecessor, Trump has backed Israel in its war efforts and remains eager to supply military aid and ammunition to the country. He has promised unconditional support towards Israel and its military, a gesture seen by activists as devastating for Gaza. Support for Israel is not just sentimental for Trump; the US presence in the region helps counterbalance adversaries such as Iran and Russia, and the US also greatly benefits from intelligence collaboration between the two countries, with Israel seen as a global leader in the field.

Within his borders, Trump has made an array of promises and outlined a plan to prevent the US from declining into a potential depression. Trump also promised to bring a halt to inflation in the American economy within his first 100 days in office. Calling tariffs ‘beautiful’, Trump is likely to call for an increase in all tariffs, especially on China. He has also threatened to impose higher tariffs on neighbours Canada and Mexico unless they do not comply with American demands across various fields, such as a reduction in illegal immigration. His election is likely to see mass deportation of suspected illegal immigrants, far surpassing the 1.5 million his administration deported during his first term.

Deregulation across various sectors is expected to follow Trump’s ascension to power. His campaign promised to roll back green regulations implemented in oil and gas drilling, which is expected to see rises in traditional energy sectors and follow his past alignment with major fossil fuel firms. While deregulation is expected to lead to immediate economic growth, it has been criticised for potentially bringing about environmental degradation and economic instability. One of Trump’s most popular vows was his claim to reduce taxes on social security benefits, tips and overtime pay, but it is not clear if and how he will be able to implement the highly popular measures without incurring significant losses for the national treasury. 

Charismatic and outspoken, Trump is what his predecessor was not, and hopes to weaponise his booming personality to equip America against its enemies. His campaign promises to paint a picture of promise and look potent to achieving desired goals such as economic growth and stability in war-ridden regions. However, his hardline stance on issues such as immigration and regulation risks incurring losses in some form or another for the USA. America can be hopeful, however, that under Trump’s presidency, their best interests can be prioritised and goals such as economic growth fulfilled. It is not necessarily as jubilant of an appointment, however, for the rest of the world, with them expected to feel the brunt of the ‘America First’ vision.